000
AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-28W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 35W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 24N91W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N93W 19N96W.  PATCHES OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO INLAND MEXICO...INITIALLY TO THE 
BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND LATER UP THE MEXICAN 
PLATEAU ALONG 19N96W 19N97W 25N100W 27N104W 31N110W. OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM THE BASE OF THE 
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E 
FROM THE GULF LOW TO S FLORIDA ALONG 26N82W 25N80W.  PATCHES OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY S OF THE FRONT ALONG 
THE COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SE FLOW.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 27N.  
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA 
AND BE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE 
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
WITH CONVECTION.    

CARIBBEAN...
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 72W-77W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA PRODUCING SW TO W 
FLOW.  A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF 
85W AND S OF 14N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COLD FRONT.        

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA 
ALONG 32N41W 26N60W 24N70W 19N96W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT E 
OF 50W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DEPICTS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  
A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE LEEWARD NEAR 21N44W.  A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N20W 30N30W 
25N40W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY 
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  AN E/W RIDGE IS 
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN W AFRICA AND S AMERICA FROM 
EQ-10N BETWEEN 1W-60W.     
     
$$
FORMOSA