000 AXNT20 KNHC 231747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU MAR 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE 2.5N43W 2.5N51W. A CLUSTER OF WEAKENING MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 2S TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 70-80 KT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF NORTH OF 25N AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE JET IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 20N96W 24N90W TO JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED NEARLY HORIZONTALLY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF THEN CONTINUES ALONG 25N95W 20N96.5W 23.6N100W TO 31N110W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26W BETWEEN 89W-91W. LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF...PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WEST OF 90W AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE N AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT NEAR 24N92W. LOW PRES WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE BASIN WEST OF 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IS AFFECTING PANAMA... NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY SOUTH OF 15N. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SEA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN CUBA LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA FROM 14N-23N. AT THE SURFACE...TWO STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXTEND S OF 32N. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N47W THEN CONTINUES NEARLY WESTWARD TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A BAND OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG 31N27W 25N40W 24N48W. A BROKEN LINE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 1O0 NM OF THIS FRONT. BESIDES FOR SOME WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N. $$ GR