000 AXNT20 KNHC 231116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 18W WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 1W-4W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. SOUTH OF 25N...WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXISTS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLID LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO NORTH FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE NEWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED NEARLY HORIZONTALLY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 25N81W 25N88W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N97W AND ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AN MCS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N94W WITH CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 92W-95W. THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC WINDS ARE NORTHEASTERLY FROM 15-25 KT WHILE LIGHTER E/SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GFS FORECASTS A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE BASIN. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE UNUSUAL COLD FOR LATE MARCH. GALE FORCE WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SEAS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N60W WITH ITS WIDE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SCATTERED ACROSS COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA STAYING MOSTLY S OF 16N AND W OF 40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 25W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA FROM 16N-25N. AT THE SURFACE...TWO STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXTEND S OF 32N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 976 MB LOW NEAR 40N49W ALONG 32N51W 27N66W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BANDS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED 250 NM OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT ENHANCING AN ACCELERATION IN THE NWLY WINDS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NEAR 23N68W. A WEAKER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N22W 27N30W 24N40W. A BROKEN LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THIS FRONT. BESIDES FOR SOME WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES UNDER THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N15W. $$ CANGIALOSI