000
AXNT20 KNHC 230519
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS FROM 20W WESTWARD. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N 
BETWEEN 1W-4W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF 
OF MEXICO ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS 
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N. SOUTH OF 26N...MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE EXISTS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ACROSS THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE MOVING NEWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED 
NEARLY HORIZONTALLY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO S MEXICO ALONG 25N81W 
24N90W THEN STATIONARY TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N97W AND 
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIN BANDS OF 
MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
FRONT. THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN 
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC WINDS ARE NORTHEASTERLY FROM 
15-25 KT WHILE LIGHTER E/SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME COMPLETELY STATIONARY LATER 
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 
ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE 
SOUTHERN GULF. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK ADVECTING COLDER AND DRIER 
AIR INTO THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND 
FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 

CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N60W WITH ITS 
WIDE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 
81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SCATTERED ACROSS 
MANY COUNTRIES IN NORTHERN S AMERICA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS 
FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA STAYING 
MOSTLY S OF 16N AND W OF 40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 
FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS. SIMILAR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE BASIN. 


ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
W OF 30W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA 
FROM 16N-24N. AT THE SURFACE...TWO STRONG AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE 
WITH GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED TO NORTH OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THEIR ASSOCIATED FRONTS EXTEND IN THE 
AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 984 MB LOW NEAR 38N54W ALONG 
32N55W 28N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BANDS OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT.  A WEAKER 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N24W 27N33W 24N40W. A BROKEN 
LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF 
THIS FRONT. BESIDES FOR SOME WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE 
FRONTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN 
THE CARIBBEAN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. A 
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 
30W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES UNDER THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ. AT 
THE SFC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N9W.  
     
$$
CANGIALOSI