000
AXNT20 KNHC 230020
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W 2N45W 1N50W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
2S-10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-43W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA 
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 24N90W.  MULTILAYERED BROKEN CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF FRONT.  A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO MEXICO AND TO THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
MOUNTAINS ALONG 26N80W 23N94W 20N98W 25N100W 29N101W.  OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE W GULF N 
OF FRONT.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG IS 
FROM THE BASE OF THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST.  MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE FRONTS.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SE FLOW.  PACIFIC 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 
25N.  EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF 
NEAR 24N90W THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION.  A COLD FRONT 
WILL EXTEND SW TO THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. A 
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF AND S FLORIDA.   

CARIBBEAN...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N 
BETWEEN 72W-75W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW 
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-72W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA PRODUCING SW TO W 
FLOW.  A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF 
80W AND S OF 15N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
SEA.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.        

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA 
ALONG 32N57W 28N70W 26N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 65W.  
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DEPICTS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  A WEAK 
1018 MB HIGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N64W.  ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N28W 25N40W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF 10N.  AN E/W RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN W AFRICA AND S AMERICA FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 
1W-60W.     
  
$$
FORMOSA