000
AXNT20 KNHC 221726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N25W 1N36W 1N50W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W BETWEEN 
EQ AND 5N. MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 15W-19W AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 28W-32W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG S OF 3N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. A 70-80 KT
SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO TO 
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE JET IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM 21N96W 24N90W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SE OF THIS LINE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
DOMINATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS 
FL TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE W END OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE 
STARTED MOVING NWD WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS OFF THE S TX 
AND N MEXICO COASTS. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS 
PRODUCING STRONG NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE 
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S AMERICA IS FLOWING AROUND THE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE 
IS BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EWD AND STAYING MAINLY S OF 18N. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. SCATTERED  
LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE ELY TRADE WINDS. THE 
SURFACE FLOW BECOME SELY W OF 80W. PATCHY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE PASSING N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N BETWEEN 
65W 70W...ALSO OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE COAST OF COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA N OF THE CANNEL.

ATLANTIC...
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N OF THE AREA 
HAS FLATTENED MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...W OF 
AROUND 50W...WITH MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N66W TO SE FLORIDA. A NARROW BAND 
OF MID-LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. SURFACE 
1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 22N57W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE 
ATLC BETWEEN 25W-50W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W TO 24N44W 
WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING TO 20N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N38W TO 29N54W. A BROKEN LINE OF MULTILAYER 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF 28N...STRETCH 100 NM 
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT. A BROAD AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N-25N E OF 35W. SURFACE 
1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N14W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLC AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 3N23W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING E-W FROM THE CIRCULATION TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 
6N11W AND W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W.
  
$$
DGS