000
AXNT20 KNHC 221146
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W EQ36W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
21W-26W AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 41N-45N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE 
RIDGE HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IT WAS OVER 
THE PAST FEW DAYS. A WEAKENED SUB-TROPICAL...75-85 KT...JET 
EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO TO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. 
THE JET IS ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM 21N96W 24N90W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SE OF 
THIS LINE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES. A WEAK SURFACE COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO S MEXICO 19N96W...THEN BECOMES 
STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO 
25N100W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PRODUCING
STRONG NE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 25N.

CARIBBEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. CONSIDERABLE 
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER S AMERICA IS FLOWING AROUND THE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS 
MOISTURE IS BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD AND STAYING 
MAINLY S OF 18N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 
75W. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE 
EASTERLY TRADES. THE SURFACE FLOW BECOME SELY W OF 80W. PATCHY 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 
THE NE OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
RATHER ZONAL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC. A 
FLATTENING MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W 
ATLANTIC W OF 55W. SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N62W. 
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-55W. A 
COMPLEX SERIES OF CYCLONES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE DEVELOPED 
IN THIS AREA...MOST OF THEM ARE NORTH OF 32N...HOWEVER TWO COLD 
FRONTS ARE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT 
EXTENDS 32N39W 28N55W 29N57W THEN WARM FRONT TO 32N62W. LOW-MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF 
THIS BOUNDARY WITH WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING IN 
BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM 32N29W 
23N50W THEN AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 19N61W. A BROKEN LINE 
OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF 
28N...STRETCH 100 NM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD AMPLIFIED 
MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC E OF 30W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 15N-25N 
E OF 40W. SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N23W.
 
$$
DGS