000 AXNT20 KNHC 201131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON MAR 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N17W 3N27W EQ32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3N2W EQ6W. CLUSTER OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90-210 NM SW OF THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ELSEWHERE S OF 5N BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TRAPPED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A POTENT SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 300 MB WIND SPEEDS NEAR 100 KT IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE FROM N/CENTRAL MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA S OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INLAND FROM E TEXAS TO MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE IN N FLORIDA. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE N GULF COAST REGION INDICATES THAT A STRONG SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EWD FROM WRN TENNESSEE TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS...BUT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED CLOUDINESS OVER N FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S/CENTRAL TEXAS ONTO THE MEXICAN PLATEAU JUST S OF CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MID-MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY NEAR THE N GULF COAST. THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT E/SE TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO E/CENTRAL MEXICO WED. CARIBBEAN... ZONAL WESTERLIES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND SRN VENEZUELA. A FEW TRADE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA...MAINLY THE REMNANTS OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS. HAZY CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AFRICAN DUST...WITH VISIBILITY REPORTED AS LOW AS 2-3 NM IN BARBADOS. ATLANTIC... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS SPIRALING NWD NEAR THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO SPREAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SWD TO THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. A WEAK AND ALMOST WEATHER-FREE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 27N60W TO THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 24N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 32N41W TO 24N50W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N35W TO 32N31W WITH A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N31W. A LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDES...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N12W TO 24N20W. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS LIE OVER W AFRICA FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA TO CNTRL ALGERIA. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC WATERS S OF 15N WWD TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SUSPENDED DUST FROM W AFRICA. LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND 2-3 NM IN BARBADOS...AND IN NOUAKCHOTT MAURITANIA WHERE BLOWING DUST IS BEING REPORTED. $$ BERG