000 AXNT20 KNHC 200527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 2N0 EQ3W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 6N BETWEEN 27W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE S AMERICAN COAST FROM GUYANA TO THE AMAZON DELTA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TRAPPED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A POTENT SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 300 MB WIND SPEEDS NEAR 100 KT IS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE FROM N/CENTRAL MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA S OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INLAND FROM E TEXAS ACROSS SRN LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AS THIS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE N GULF COAST REGION INDICATES THAT MOST WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED WELL N INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...BUT A STRONG SQUALL LINE IS DEVELOPING FROM DALLAS TO PIEDRAS NEGRAS MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY PUSH TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE EARL MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED PATCHES OF FOG OVER FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT E/SE TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO E/CENTRAL MEXICO WED. CARIBBEAN... ZONAL WESTERLIES COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND SRN VENEZUELA. A FEW TRADE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WWD UP TO 360 NM AS WELL AS ON THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA...MAINLY THE REMNANTS OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. HAZY CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AFRICAN DUST...WITH VISIBILITY REPORTED AS LOW AS 3 NM IN BARBADOS. ATLANTIC... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX IS SPIRALING NWD NEAR THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A CIRCULATION LARGE ENOUGH TO SPREAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES SWD TO THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES. A WEAK AND ALMOST WEATHER-FREE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 26N70W. BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 26N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ABOUT 600 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 32N44W TO 22N55W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 13N40W 32N35W WITH A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N35W. A LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDES...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N10W TO 25N20W. ELSEWHERE...A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS LIE OVER W AFRICA FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA TO SW ALGERIA. HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC WATERS S OF 16N WWD TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SUSPENDED DUST FROM W AFRICA. LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND 3 NM IN BARBADOS. $$ BERG