000 AXNT20 KNHC 192340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N28W 2N35W 1N42W 0.5N50W. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-34W. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2S BETWEEN 16W-30W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED OVER AND NEAR THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N. THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO 27N87W. ONLY A NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. GENERALLY S-SSE SFC WINDS FROM 15-20 KT EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR S OF 24N W OF 87W WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS PRESENT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE MOST ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER IS W OF 90W N OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH A 997 MB SFC LOW OVER THE TX/MX BORDER NEAR 27N100W AND A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC OVER THE SE U.S. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROCEED SEWARD THROUGH TUESDAY CROSSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THEREAFTER THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WNW-W FLOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE DRIEST AIR S OF 16N. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXISTS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC. MODERATE TRADES FROM 15-20 KT ARE E OF 70W WITH LIGHTER TRADES W OF 70W. GFS FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLUMBIA THRU TUESDAY. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TOMORROW FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MID-UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. EAST OF 75W...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 50W-75W N OF 24N. A SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N64W TO 26N73W. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 200NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N50W 24N61W TO THE N COAST OF HAITI. A DISSIPATING BROKEN LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 34N46W 19N63W. A MORE IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT 150 NM WIDE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS N OF 25N. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28W-50W. AT THE SFC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N33W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES E OF 27W. A SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N12W 26N19W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 995 MB LOW LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 44N11W EXISTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 27N. $$ CANGIALOSI