000 AXNT20 KNHC 191749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N20W 2.5N30W 1N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 1.5S-EQ BETWEEN 50W-53W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE NORTH- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF ALONG 29.5N94W 28.5N89W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH 15-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE BEGINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS...JUST SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF U.S. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY FLOW S OF THE FRONT WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY WNW-W UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITH A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. AT THE SURFACE... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN...THANKS TO A RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AREA ARE JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADES ARE TRANSPORTING SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS GENERATING SOME LOW LEVELS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BY THIS EVENING AND THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN...REACHING AGAIN NEAR 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ENE OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 7N42W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N54W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 24N-66.5W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N-50W TO JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 100-130 NM EAST OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM 28N-34N. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WEST OF THE FRONT...THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG 31N65W 28N70W 26N77W. A PATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OBSERVED FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 61W-69W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 27N39W. $$ GR