000
AXNT20 KNHC 191122
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 2N30W 3N40W 4N51W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 10W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
BRAZIL FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 50W-52W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON TO 
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF THE 
FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES WITH 15-25 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  RIDGE AXIS IS 
ALONG 92W MOVING E. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SE 
SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA... 
AND JAMAICA PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS.  RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS 
RAIN AND HEAVY SHOWERS JUST S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 17N-18N 
BETWEEN 66W-67W.  ELSEWHERE... TRADES ARE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN 
PRODUCING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM BARBADOS TO COSTA 
RICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 80W PRODUCING NW FLOW.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W PRODUCING WSW FLOW.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN LESSING THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
ANY HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N69W 27N74W.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE TROUGH.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 
27N60W 25N70W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS 
ALONG 30N52W 22N61W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N AND W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  A 
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE AREA EXCEPT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W WHERE A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS PRODUCING CONVECTION WITH THE AID OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AGAIN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 
30W-50W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 5N37W.  BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-60W.         

$$
FORMOSA