000 AXNT20 KNHC 171748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N17W 4N30W 4N45W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W AND S OF 5N FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 6W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALONG COASTAL PLAINS FROM MOBIL AL TO HOUSTON TX. THE FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NE GULF LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT. 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NE GULF NEAR 28N87W. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE DENSE FOG FROM THIS MORNING THINNING OUT SOME ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE SW GULF FROM THE E PACIFIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW DOMINATES PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE ENTIRE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COAST RICA AND PANAMA N OF THE CANAL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... W ATLC UNDER ZONAL WLY FLOW W OF 60W..WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF 90 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA ACROSS THE ATLC TO 32N60W. A WEAKENING 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N61W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 47W-56W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N40W TO 25N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N38W N TO BEYOND 32N34W. WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N17W TO 25N21W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N14W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N21W. THE AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER E ATLC ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THINNING DUST COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND S OF A LINE FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W TO 16N51W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 8N13W ALONG 7N30W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. $$ DGS