000 AXNT20 KNHC 162341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W 2.5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 7W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-31W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH FROM THE ATLC CONTROLS THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NW GULF. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND SHOULD ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN NE WINDS. FOR NOW BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 89W MOSTLY BECAUSE OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER RIDGING IS THE RULE ALOFT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN SE TEXAS FOR SAT WITH A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. CARIBBEAN SEA... SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS THE RULE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER CONVERGENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO TO NICARAGUA AND A RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMED OVER W PUERTO RICO WITH OTHER ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN... OTHERWISE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BENIGN. DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED TO NEAR 70F OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A BIT DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF AFRICAN DUST COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NEAR AVERAGE OR LOWER THAN AVERAGE TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CONTROLS THE SUBTROPICAL PART OF THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N54W 25N62W STATIONARY TO 23N74W SLICING THE HIGH IN TWO. ONE HIGH CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE US E COAST NEAR 29N73W AND THE OTHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 60W WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS LEFT THE REGION AND WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR ANOTHER LOW TO FORM S OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO INVIGORATE ITS EASTWARD MOTION. IN THE E ATLC...STRONG CUT-OFF LOW E OF THE AZORES HAS PUSHED ANY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR S INTO THE AREA WITH AXIS FROM WESTERN SAHARA TO 25N45W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTROLS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING ALONG ABOUT 45W WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES.. PART OF A LARGER TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE AZORES LOW TO 31N20W THEN 13N27W. UPPER RIDGING HAS NUDGED ITS WAY PRETTY FAR TO THE N FOR MID MARCH.. LYING FROM 6N38W TO 7N58W. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE ITCZ. AFRICAN DUST DOES REMAIN A FACTOR... WITH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTING A FAIR CONCENTRATION N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N E OF 47W. $$ BLAKE