000
AXNT20 KNHC 161743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N1W 4N20W 2N35W 2N50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 4N E OF 6W AND WITHIN 140 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 10W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 28W TO 33W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGE NEAR THE NORTHING GULF COAST ALONG 
30N. MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO 
OVER THE SE US COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE GULF FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 
70 TO 80 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
AT THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO HAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WHERE MID AND UPPER LEVEL COLDS ARE 
BEING ADVECTED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 
OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN HAS SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY W ON THE STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC DIPPING INTO THE FAR 
NE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE N OF 20N 
FROM 50W TO 75W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
32N55W TO 24N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF 
THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS 
NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N179W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 16N45W N TO BEYOND 32N43W. AT 
THE SURFACE A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N51W. DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N22W TO 20N27W. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N18W SW TO 26N24W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER E ATLC FROM 6N-18N E OF 45W...HOWEVER 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AREA DO NOT INDICATE ANY 
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 8N15W 5N25W 4N33W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 20W.

$$
DGS