000 AXNT20 KNHC 161123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 5N12W 3N26W 2N38W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10W-21W AND S OF 3N E OF 5W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 5W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-35W AND W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER S GEORGIA/N FLORIDA WITH THE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS N OF 24N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO OVER THE SE US COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN EASTERLY FLOW AND THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 75W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA GIVING THE S CARIBBEAN SW UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. THINNING AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SLIGHT HAZY CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN W OF 55W TO JUST E OF FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 24N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 16N49W N TO BEYOND 32N44W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N48W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC S OF 30N E OF THE FRONT TO 30W. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED GALE CENTER IS REMAINS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W TO 18N31W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W SW TO 27N28W CUTTING OFF A 1016 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N16W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WEATHER FEATURE AGAIN TODAY IS THE DENSE AFRICAN DUST THAT REMAINS OVER E ATLC FROM 6N-18N E OF 46W SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS OBSERVED FROM 10N-15N E OF 24W WHICH IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N31W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N58W ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE