000 AXNT20 KNHC 160522 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N23W 2N35W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. THE ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE SINCE LAST NIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 2W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 23W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-42W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG DOT THE AREA S OF 3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 20W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE W ATLC E OF FLORIDA...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 23N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N E OF 83W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER S GEORGIA WITH THE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS GENERATING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO OVER THE SE US COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-81W WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY SW UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HAVE A FIRM HOLD OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND THE ABC ISLANDS. THINNING AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE LESSER ANTILLES SLIGHT HAZY CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC DIPPING INTO THE N CARIBBEAN W OF 58W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N60W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N48W N TO BEYOND 32N48W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N47W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT TO 30W. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED GALE CENTER IS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH 32N26W TO 23N34W. THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DENSE AFRICAN DUST THAT REMAINS OVER E ATLC FROM 5N-18N E OF 45W SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING IS OBSERVED JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 10N JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 4N40W COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 20N...THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC...AND A PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE... GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE