000 AXNT20 KNHC 151748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N30W 4N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS PRESENTLY OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA. THE FRONT EXTENDS W TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 24N90W 25N95W. THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS THINNING OUT WITH SOME BREAKS. SURFACE WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE 15-20 KT FROM THE ENE. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W INFLUENCING THE N GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE N OF 27N. EXPECT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE GULF FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE OVER W CUBA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA ...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW TO W FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 65W WHERE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME AFRICAN DUST MAY ADVECT OVER THE SEA AND SPREAD WESTWARD WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 NM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRESENTLY A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N64W 28N70W 24N80W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N51W. FAIR WEATHER IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 15W-65W. A STRONG OUTBURST OF AFRICAN DUST PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W. THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS STILL HAS LIMITED VISIBILITY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 60W-70W. WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND W AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N30W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 37W-60W. $$ FORMOSA