000 AXNT20 KNHC 150531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 20W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER THE E US AND CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE N GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W WSW ALONG 24N93W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 19N96W...RETURNING NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT IS VERY SLOW MOVING AND IS PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE FROM 19N-27N W OF 95W INLAND OVER MEXICO TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE S GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SHIFTED S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA WITH WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING N OF THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING INTO THE N GULF GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER DEW POINTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING FEW SHOWERS BECOMING STATIONARY AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER HIGH THAT WAS IN THE SW GULF LAST NIGHT IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UPPER NE FLOW. THE UPPER LOW FROM THE W ATLC LAST NIGHT IS NOW JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N68W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 14N75W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS GIVING THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN UPPER SW FLOW S OF A LINE FROM VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 57W-65W. AFRICAN DUST HAS MOVED OVER BARBADOS GIVING THE AREA HAZY CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFRICAN DUST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC REMAINING OVER THE E US N OF 28N W OF 72W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. WEAK...NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N80W NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA AIDING THE GENERATION OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW ATLC JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N68W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 24N62W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 40W-70W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W BETWEEN 35W-60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N57W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE MOST OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W ATLC S OF 30N. A VERY WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED STORM CENTER IS N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTEND THROUGH 32N23W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY N OF THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS THE DENSE AFRICAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 5N-20N E OF 40W SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S...SEVERELY LIMITING CLOUD FORMATION AND VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE TROPICS NEAR 6N32W COVERING THE E ATLC S OF 20N...THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC...AND A PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE MOST OF THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE