000
AXNT20 KNHC 141755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 3N35W 1S45W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 8W-10W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO 
ALONG 31N83W 25N94W 20N97W 21N99W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  
20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF HAS CONTINUED 10-15 KT WARM SLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS 
ALONG 85W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 
28N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT 
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO E MEXICO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING WITH CONVECTION.        

CARIBBEAN SEA...
30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  20-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA 
MOSTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W.  IN FACT...RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS.  ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS 
OF PANAMA ...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE IS W OF 75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF 
PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N59W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA... 
WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS E TO 23N30W.  THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 26N24W.  A BAND 
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 
AFRICAN DUST PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.  
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS STILL HAS LIMITED VISIBILITY.   IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 
75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
21N67W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 12N-28N BETWEEN 60W-75W.  WLY 
FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND W AFRICA.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.  A SIGNIFICANT 
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA 
FROM EQ-17N BETWEEN 40W-60W.    

$$
FORMOSA