000 AXNT20 KNHC 121147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 9N11W 6N20W 4N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 41W...2S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND CLUSTERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 50W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN 22W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE COVERS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TO 60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS ABOUT THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 84W...MOVING EASTWARD UNDER THE BROAD EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALREADY ARE REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA BORDER. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 12/0900 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR CONTINUES EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS FLOW HAS SPILLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SOME POSSIBLY HAS COME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... WEST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...PASSES OVER THIS PART OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE LINE 15N81W 16N70W BEYOND 17N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N39W TO 22N43W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N31W 27N37W 22N43W. BROKEN STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THIS LINE...AND CONTINUE TO BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 22N43W 18N50W 14N60W. THESE STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW EXISTS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N72W JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH HAVE MADE THEIR WAY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW ARE MAKING THEIR PRESENCE FELT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 40W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EVENTUALLY ATE UP THE OLD 28N26W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. A COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS NEAR 29N24W...WITH A TROUGH GOING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 35N26W. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE 29N24W LOW CENTER AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH NEAR 35N26W ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED WITH TIME. THE 29N24W LOW CENTER PROBABLY EVENTUALLY WILL BE BY ITSELF WITHOUT THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 21N38W 29N27W BEYOND 32N23W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS EAST OF 20W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. $$ MT