000
AXNT20 KNHC 111803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W EQ40W 2S45W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 11W-16W.    
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WARM 15-20 KT SLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO DUE TO A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N63W.  
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM WITH 
PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO N FLORIDA ALONG 
21N105W 29N85W 28N80W.  EXPECT SIMILAR SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N.       

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA MOSTLY 
S OF 17N AND E OF 77W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 
70W WITH AXIS ALONG 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SKIES ARE VOID OF HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT 
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
PREDOMINATELY S OF 17N.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N63W.  A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 26N40W 18N50W.  A BAND 
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 
A 1033 MB HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 40N15W.  A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO W OF THE CANARY ISLAND NEAR 27N28W.  
AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.  A NEW 
OUTBURST OF DUST WITH LOWEST SURFACE VISIBILITIES ARE FROM 
5N-15N E OF 33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
50W-70W.  WLY FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 5N40W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-15N BETWEEN 20W-55W.    

$$
FORMOSA