000 AXNT20 KNHC 111201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 5N20W 1N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 34W...3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 3W AND 12W...AND FROM 3N TO 3S BETWEEN 17W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL STATES. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH IS DEVELOPING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 11/0900 CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR IS FOUND FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 77W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THIS FLOW HAS SPILLED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SOME POSSIBLY HAS COME FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 37W/38W DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND 32N36W 18N50W SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N65W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FOUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE THEIR EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 27N40W 18N50W. THE ONLY GREAT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AT THIS TIME...OTHER THAN FOR THE TRADEWIND PRECIPITATION...EXISTS WITH THIS TROUGH AND FRONT...AND TO THE NORTH OF 32N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A DISTINCT BAND OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N35W 27N40W 21N47W 17N60W 15N70W. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 20N42W 28N32W BEYOND 32N27W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED NEAR 26N28W. A FAINT HINT OF SOME CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS NEAR THERE...AS IT IS BEING OVERTAKEN BY FLOW WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE NEXT-APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH. $$ MT