000
AXNT20 KNHC 101731
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 1N31W EQ36W 2S44W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-16W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-30W AND 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 40W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS. WEAK 1002 MB LOW PRES AT THE SFC NEAR 
20N95W WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
ALONG THE NW GULF COAST WITH RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE FRONT OVER E TEXAS AND THE AL/MS/LA COAST. THE FRONT 
WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CUBA WITH THE WATER VAPOR 
LOOP SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
COLOMBIA...ACROSS NW VENEZUELA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A 
SELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 23N47W 
BEYOND 32N46W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES 
THROUGH 32N42W TO 26N45W TO 15N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 
23N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS W OF THE FRONT. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW CENTER IS NEAR 
24N29W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN A BIG RIDGE IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE 23N29W 
LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 32N23W 
15N48W. THE LATEST VISIBLE SAT PIC SHOWS AREA OF WIDESPREAD DUST 
EXTENDING OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 6N-23N E OF 35W...AND FROM 
18N-32N BETWEEN 27W-40W.  
 
$$
RJO/BERG