000 AXNT20 KNHC 101154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W...2N20W...THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1N40W 1N43W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4S TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF MAINLAND U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE LOW CENTER WITH THIS TROUGH WAS FOUND IN EASTERN MISSOURI SIX HOURS AGO...AND NOW THIS LOW IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA. IT REALLY SHOT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD BEEN ANALYZED FROM LOUISIANA TO TEXAS SIX HOURS AGO WAS NOT FOUND AT 10/0600 UTC. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ALSO IS EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0900 UTC. DENSE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 29N80W 27N84W 24N90W 19N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE FLOWS GENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE THE MOST PROMINENT IN THE WESTERN THREE-FOURTHS OF THE AREA...LOOKING AT THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0900 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...JUST WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...CURVING OVER AND BEYOND 18N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 80W TO THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM COLOMBIA TO 18N60W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 23N56W BEYOND 32N49W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N50W TO 15N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH...AT LEAST FROM THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AT ITS EASTERN EDGE TO 70W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N47W 28N43W BEYOND 32N42W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY AN OBVIOUS BAND OF CLOUDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS CLOUD BAND. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE 23N29W 7N28W TROUGH AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23N29W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N29W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 14N26W TO 7N28W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN A BIG RIDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF THE 23N29W LOW CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N66W JUST WEST OF BERMUDA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N46W TO 26N39W BEYOND 32N31W. $$ MT