000 AXNT20 KNHC 100616 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N11W 2N20W 2N30W 2N36W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 4S TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W...AND WITHIN 240 NM TO 280 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1S34W 3N17W ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM AN EASTERN MISSOURI LOW CENTER TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS CONNECTED TO THIS BOUNDARY...GOING FROM EAST TEXAS FIROUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ALSO IS EVIDENT IN THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0300 UTC. DENSE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF 20N97W 26N87W 27N77W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN RIDGE FLOWS GENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE THE MOST PROMINENT...LOOKING AT THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/0300 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...JUST WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...CURVING OVER AND BEYOND 20N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS THE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM COLOMBIA AND 20N EAST OF 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 26N51W BEYOND 34N48W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N50W TO 15N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N50W 27N45W BEYOND 32N43W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY AN OBVIOUS BAND OF CLOUDS...AND THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE 23N28W 7N28W TROUGH AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23N28W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N30W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 14N26W TO 7N28W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW A BIG RIDGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 23N28W LOW CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N67W. AN EASTERN SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 32N32W TO 23N40W TO 14N49W. $$ MT