000 AXNT20 KNHC 091105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N20W 1N30W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 6W-13W FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 14W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 1N-3N FROM 22W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 91W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTH INTO TEXAS NEAR 30N102W THEN CONTINUING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 25O NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACT TO THE NW WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE E OF 93N...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEST TO NEAR 15N68W. ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM BRANCH FROM SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 61W-77W CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST S OF 13N E OF 69W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N77W...RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH OVER CUBA THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 12N85W. ELSEWHERE W OF 70W...STRONG TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 31N77W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH OVER CUBA THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 12N85W AND THEN WEST ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 22N91W. FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N57W...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 28N E OF 65W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40KTS AND SEAS FROM 12FT-20FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEXES SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY INTO THE ARE NEAR 30N53W AND CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR 17N71W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 118 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 16N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 23N27W...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-26N BETWEEN 18W-39W. $$ JP/JA