000
AXNT20 KNHC 090544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N20W 1N50W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 3W-12W FROM 4N-6N 
BETWEEN 14W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A 1023 MB SURFACE 
HIGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W WITH RIDGING 
THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO TO NEAR 91W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED  SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN 
TEXAS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 25O NM AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT.  ELSEWHERE...S OF 25N W OF 85W MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF 
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON 
FROM THE WESTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST... WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN 
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WEST TO NEAR 
17N71W.  ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON 
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS DRIVING THE HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE 
NORTHEAST S OF 13N E OF 76W. ELSEWHERE W OF 76W...STRONG TO 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
31N77W...RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH OVER CUBA TO NEAR 19N77W AND WEST 
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 26N91W.  
FURTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 33N62W...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT N OF 28N E 
OF 65W WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40KTS AND SEAS FROM 12FT-20FT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
LOCATED FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W-57W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEXES SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY INTO THE ARE 
NEAR 30N55W AND CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N71W.... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED ON SATELLITE WITHIN 118 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER 
EAST IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE.  A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 41N33W WITH 
RIDGING EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 17N52W.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 23N26W...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-26N BETWEEN 18W-39W.

$$
JP/JA