000
AXNT20 KNHC 081801
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 10W-16W FROM 
EQ-4N E OF 9W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS N FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH A RIDGE EXTEND S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RETURN FLOW 
AROUND THE HIGH PRODUCING A SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM SRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND 
THE SE U.S. TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR 
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD E OF FLORIDA IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BY THU 
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE 
TX/LA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN 
HISPANIOLA TO N JAMAICA TO 20N95W. W OF JAMAICA THE FRONT IS 
DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE E 
CARIBBEAN WHILE SLOW DISSIPATING. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE....PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER AND TO THE 
SW OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED 
NEAR 6N54W IS PUSHING MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
AIR. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N64W WILL MOVE NE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KTS...WITH SEAS AS 
HIGH 20 FT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE 
WESTERN QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W SW TO 
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E SE TO 
31N50W18N62W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE CONVECTION 
SPREADING S AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20N. 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W WITH A RIDGE AXIS S SW TO 12N37W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS 
S TO PUERTO RICO WITH THE AXIS BETWEEN 64W-68W. UPPER RIDGE  IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MAIN AXIS NEAR 45WE. CUTOFF LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 24N26W...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 
50W.     

$$
RJO