000 AXNT20 KNHC 081038 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED MAR 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-16W FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 20W-23W AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 26N-31N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS FROM 21N77W WEST TO NEAR 22N86W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PUSHED ITS WAY EAST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 21N97W ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF TO NEAR 32N94W AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S....THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE ENTIRE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS LOCATED NEAR 21N77W TO 22N86W. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THE FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSED. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE....PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 4N56W IS HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N68W CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KTS...WITH SEAS AS HIGH 20 FT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W THEN CONTINUING WEST AS A DYEING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 22N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N16W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW TO 21N61W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO NEAR 30N75W CONTINUING N OF THE AREA...STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO NEAR 35W23W. A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N26W. $$ JP/HC