000
AXNT20 KNHC 071807
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N40W 2N43W 1N48W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N11W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH S FLORIDA AND 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 25N85W 30N94W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS 
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE 15 KT WINDS AND 
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. 
THE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST WEST OF THE GULF EXTENDING SW TO NE ALONG 
95W-100W. A NW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  70-90 UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER N FLORIDA N OF 27N 
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE S 
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TODAY THEN EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST 
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT 
AND WED WITH A RETURN FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF 
WED.    

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
LIGHT ELY SURFACE FLOW IS E OF 70W.  15-25 KT NE FLOW IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W.  PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND 
SOUTHWEST HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAIN IS 
OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 67W-73W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...WLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE N CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND WED BUT WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N74W WITH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING SW TO 27N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N .THE LOW WILL MOVE 
TO THE NE PULLING THE FRONT TO 31N54W 20N59W TO THE NORTH 
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N54W. A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
EXTENDS 32N40W 22N51W.  MULTILAYERED OVERCAST BROKEN CLOUDS 
EXTENDS 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. 1034 MB HIGH IO OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N15W WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW TO 20N43W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 75W-80W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  A RIDGE N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-65W 
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 60W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM 
35W-40W. A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N25W. THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-60W.     

$$
RJO/MRF