000 AXNT20 KNHC 071142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N30W 3N42W 1N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N FROM OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS THEN NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND COVERING THE GULF W OF 94W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF N OF 20N FROM 94W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ALL OF THIS IS GIVING THE GULF NW UPPER FLOW. COMPLEX SYSTEM OF LOWS IS N OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT IS MOVING S INTO THE N GULF COAST THEN WILL SHIFT E DURING THE DAY TODAY EXITING THE GULF BY WED. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N91W. MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SPITE THE PRESENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF UNTIL THU WHEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE IN THE DAY THEN MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA FOR BY THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... W TO SW UPPER FLOW REIGNS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 50 TO 80 KT IS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N75W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W...ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SE AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-78W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND N COAST OF E PANAMA...EXPECTING TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FRONT FORMING OVER THE SE US WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY THU. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E US/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 38W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N48W TO 19N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N41W TO E THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N53W. BROKEN/ OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 30W-50W THEN NARROWS SHARPLY TO N OF 32N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N. A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 15N-32N BETWEEN 14W-30W CENTERED NEAR 23N24W AND INCLUDES THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W SW TO 14N47W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS OVER THE AREA OF THE UPPER LOW. $$ WALLACE