000
AXNT20 KNHC 070456
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N16W EQ28W 1N35W S OF THE 
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OVER TEXAS 
THEN NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND COVERING THE GULF W OF 
90W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US INTO THE E GULF N OF 
23N FROM 90W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. COMPLEX SYSTEM OF 
LOWS AND STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SE US. AT THE 
SURFACE OVER THE GULF...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N93W. 
ALL OF THIS IS GIVING THE GULF NW UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN 
CONTROL OF THE GULF UNTIL THU WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER 
THE GULF LATE IN THE DAY THEN MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA FOR BY THE 
WEEKEND.  

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
W TO SW UPPER FLOW REIGNS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING 
TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. STATIONARY FRONT FROM 
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER PUERTO RICO GIVING THE ISLANDS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT IS 
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N75W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN 
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W...ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE 
AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S 
OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 673W-75W INCLUDING 
THE ABC ISLANDS. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF THE NW 
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND N COAST OF E PANAMA...EXPECTING TO 
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FRONT FORMING OVER 
THE SE US WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE 
TODAY AND EXIT THE AREA BY THU. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR 
CONDITIONS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE 
THE ATLANTIC. A BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E 
US/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 40W. ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING SW 
ALONG 26N49W TO 21N58W THEN PULLS UP STATIONARY TO OVER PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 18N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
32N42W ALONG 24N48W TO E THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N57W. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 
NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR 
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. SHARP MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS 
THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 30W-50W THEN NARROWS SHARPLY TO N OF 32N. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N. 
A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC FROM 15N-30N 
BETWEEN 15W-33W CENTERED NEAR 23N24W AND INCLUDES THE CANARY AND 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E 
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W SW TO 12N47W. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS OVER THE AREA OF THE UPPER 
LOW.  

$$
WALLACE