000
AXNT20 KNHC 060506
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N31W ALONG THE 
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 40W-51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE 
AXIS FROM 14W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 4N TO 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN 
STATES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHING THE N GULF 
COAST. THIS WILL FORM THE GALE CENTER OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH 
CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY MON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE FAR N GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...WESTERLY 
ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO GIVE THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE 
AREA WITH A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE US E COAST NEAR 32N78W AND A 
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SE US WILL CLIP THE N GULF 
LATER TODAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE IN THE 
WEEK PRESENTING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
AN UPPER CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE S OF THIS LINE SW 
UPPER FLOW AND THE N OF THIS LINE W UPPER FLOW. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING TO 
LIMIT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N 
OF GUADELOUPE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF THE NW COAST 
OF COLOMBIA AND N COAST OF E PANAMA. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE TUE THROUGH THU. 
DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO 
DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N 
OF 18N BETWEEN 48W-76W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N56W TO 22N65W THEN 
DISSIPATES OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N51W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF 
GUADELOUPE NEAR 17N62W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 
26N FROM 41W-50W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT 
LEAVING COLD AIR SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT 
TO 76W. BROAD...FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 33W-48W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE 
AREA S OF 25N. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW THROUGH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 
23N22W TO 17N26W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 10N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1035 MB HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 35N22W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS WITHIN 250/300 NM 
OF TROUGH AXIS. 

$$
WALLACE