000
AXNT20 KNHC 051114
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 1N46W S OF THE 
EQUATOR INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N TO 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. MODERATE/ 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE GULF S OF 28N 
WITH NO MEASURABLE SHOWERS PRESENT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO 
BUILD S FROM THE US OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF 
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM 
MAY CLIP THE NE GULF LATE IN THE DAY ON MON INTO TUE. LITTLE 
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...THUS THIS FRONT MAY ONLY GENERATE 
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE 
SUBSEQUENT BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E TO SE 
UPPER FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE 
CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 
HISPANIOLA IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OVER 
THE AREA...THUS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. SMALL AREA OF STRONG TRADE 
WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND EFFECT THE 
N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MON. 
THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT TO EFFECT THE AREA WILL NOT BE UNTIL MID 
WEEK...AND THEN ONLY THE N PORTION. EVEN DRIER IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK PRODUCING 
CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE 
ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
53W-73W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
32N51W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A 
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N63W TO OVER 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 
LINE FROM 27N55W TO BEYOND 32N50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA W OF THE FRONT LEAVING COLD AIR 
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W. 
BROAD...FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 
40W-53W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE AREA 
S OF 25N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS WSW THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
22N25W TO 18N30W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 14N E OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A 1030 MB HIGH 
LOCATED NEAR 32N30W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXISTS WITHIN 350/400 
NM OF LINE FROM 6N37W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 22N16W. 

$$
WALLACE