000 AXNT20 KNHC 042351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W EQ28W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 25W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 95W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. AS OF 1800 UTC A TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 28N96W 27N97 WHILE THE WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF HAS DISSIPATED. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH MEXICO FROM 22N88W TO 16N92W. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM... CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IN U.S. WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NW SECTOR OF THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF GUYANA NEAR 9N54W GIVING THE AREA MAINLY WSWLY FLOW. A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM JAMAICA NE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 25N65W 19N70W IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA. ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ATLC AND SE BAHAMAS MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUNDAY TROUGH MONDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W N OF 23N. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N57W 26N65W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD ABOUT 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SOUTH OF 25N...ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE FRONT. COLD AIR SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N65W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ABOUT 100 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N. A BROAD FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 30W-60W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS S OF 25N. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N32W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA E OF 30W N OF 20N. AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OR CUT-OFF LOW. MODERATE/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO EXISTS IN THE EAST ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ S OF 20N. $$ GR