000 AXNT20 KNHC 041650 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 3N19W TO THE EQUATOR 27W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S32W 3S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL. ANOTHER NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 7W-9W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INCLUDES MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS ALONG 97W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DISSIPATED. AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N80W 25N93W THEN STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS...A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY MAKE THIS FRONT IDENTIFIABLE. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NE WINDS FROM 10-20 KT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THERE ARE SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N53W. A BROAD RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY WESTERLY/WSWLY FROM 40-60 KT. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ENE TRADE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF WILL NOT REACH THE CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE ISLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...NO BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W N OF 24N. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N59W 26N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD ABOUT 400 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ABOUT 100 NM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY N OF 26N. SOUTH OF 26N...ONLY A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE FRONT. COLD AIR SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 25N65W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A BROAD FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 30W-60W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS S OF 27N. A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N33W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA E OF 30W N OF 20N. AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N26W. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CLOUD COVER OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OR CUT-OFF LOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO EXISTS IN THE EAST ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ S OF 20N. $$ CANGIALOSI