000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... 7N11W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N15W-3N20W-EQUATOR AT 26W...AND FROM 3N TO 4S BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS OF BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH STARTED OUT A FEW DAYS AGO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF NOW FINDS ITSELF MUCH LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND MOVING EASTWARD OVER WESTERN CUBA AND SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN PUSHED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE APPROACH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH NOW IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 29N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N...OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND THEN STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 27N82W 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N...AND INLAND TO THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE CUBA LOW CENTER REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 25N84W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 35N55W 31N60W 27N65W. THE PRECIPITATION THINS OUT WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N65W 26N68W 25N71W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE RACING TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N70W 26N77W 24N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N63W 26N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF 26N80W 23N85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND IS BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM TEXAS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM INTERIOR MEXICO NORTHWARD TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W... THE WIND FLOW AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...POSSIBLY MOSTLY AROUND THE WESTERN CUBA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GENERALLY EXISTS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W...EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTHERN ALGERIA TO 30N15W TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N32W TO 26N45W 23N51W 23N67W 22N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 28N28W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE 28N28W LOW TO A 42N15W LOW CENTER WHICH PROBABLY IS HEADING TOWARD THE PORTUGAL COAST. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FOUND FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 10W IN AFRICA AND 50W. $$ MT