000 AXNT20 KNHC 032359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W THEN DROPS S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF 19W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MID-UPPER AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE CENTRAL U.S WITH THE UPPER AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 101W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 90W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW EARLIER NEAR THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS PUSHED INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS NOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N85W...AND APPEARS TO BE SHEARING OUT INTO A TROUGH AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N84W TO 23N86W TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 26N AND E OF 86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N E OF 90W. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT GETTING ANY BETTER DEFINED...AND MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRIDGE SWD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUN NIGHT INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO TAMPA BAY...AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N86W TO 27N92W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE WNW INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ONLY A FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND TO WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM S OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS FRONT MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BY THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS IS GENERALLY WLY WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE ENTIRE SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME NW PART WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW IS SEEN SWINGING SE INTO THE SEA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL IS BEING EJECTED NNE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 72W. PATCHES OF BROKEN MOSTLY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO N OF 15N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN L0W CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH ARE N OF 20N W OF 85W. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BRING EASTERLY TRADES TO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 15N E OF 71W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WITH SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER TROUGHS BY PASSING MUCH OF THE REGION PRESENTLY. HOWEVER...LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. COAST EXETNDS SW INTO SE GEORGIA AND SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N65W AND CONTINUE SW ALONG 29N76W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. ONLY A FINE LINE OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. ABOUT 200-400 NM SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 32N6W SW ALONG 29N66W TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 23N77W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 65W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 35 NM OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT GENERALLY E OF 70W DUE TO A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...ONE OF 1024 MB NEAR 27N38W AND THE OTHER OF 1025 MB NEAR 27N29W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FAIRLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF OF 60-90 KT EXTENDS FROM 5N25W NE THROUGH 6N20W TO WELL INLAND ACROSS AFRICA NEAR 9N13W. BROKEN TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SE OF THE JET STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE