000
AXNT20 KNHC 031700
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N15W 1N23W 1S30W 3S40W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 
20W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF S AMERICA  
BETWEEN 40W-52W FROM 4S-4N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MID-UPPER AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO 
THE CENTRAL U.S WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 100W. A MID-UPPER 
LEVEL LOW JUST NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W IS 
PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS 
BETWEEN 83W-89W FROM 18N-26N. THIS FEATURE HAS A SURFACE 
REFLECTION AS A TROUGH FROM 20N87W TO 26N84W...HOWEVER...AS OF 
LATE THIS MORNING IT HAS MORE CURVATURE TO ITS STRUCTURE AND MAY 
BE CLOSING OFF AS A SURFACE LOW IF THIS KEEPS UP. GLOBAL MODELS 
DO NOT HAVE IT VERY WELL INITIALIZED AND THEREFORE ARE NOT 
FORECASTING ANY 
DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ENTERED THE GULF EARLY 
THIS MORNING AND AS OF 1500 UTC...EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA 
ALONG 29N81W 28N87W TO THE TEXAS COAST 29N95W. ONLY A NARROW 
BAND OF CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUDINESS IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR LIES 
S OF 26N W OF 91W. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 
EASTERN GULF TOMORROW BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N65W IS GENERATING MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA E OF 80W. W OF 80W...BROKEN 
MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IN THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 80W. TYPICAL 
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE W 
ATLANTIC AND GULF WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COASTS OF CUBA AND 
HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC W 
OF 40W WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N76W TO 27N71W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE 
AREA E OF 70W THANKS TO A PAIR OF 1025 MB SURFACE HIGHS LOCATED 
NEAR 30N23W AND 27N32W. HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC PUSHING THE ITCZ SOUTH 
OF THE EQUATOR W OF 27W.  AN 80-100 KT UPPER LEVEL SWLY JET 
EXTENDS FROM 6N13W TO 11N15W TO WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE NW OF THE JET AXIS FROM 50W EASTWARD S OF 
22N. CONSIDERABLE MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
TO THE RIGHT OF THE AXIS. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH 
OF THE AREA IN THE W ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND EXTEND 
FROM 32N54W TO 22N72W IN 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN 
CONTROL IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

$$
CANGIALOSI