000 AXNT20 KNHC 030616 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 03 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... 8N8W 6N13W 2N18W 1N25W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 32W...TO THE BRAZIL COAST AT 3S40W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W... AND FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 5S BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH WAS MORE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED ITS POSITION EASTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW MORE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W IN WESTERN CUBA TO 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N92W. THE WESTERN END OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE HAS POKED ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF WATERS REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA. NO OTHER DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OF THIS AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SOME UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER. THIS AREA MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATES FROM A 1007 MB INLAND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W... AND STRETCHES TO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 34N11W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N23W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS NEAR 27N34W...TO 24N45W TO 21N60W...TO 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS TO 26N83W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES 31N54W AND GOES BEYOND 32N50W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N47W BEYOND 32N40W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS ZONAL BETWEEN 20W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD SPAIN AND MOROCCO AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ MT