000 AXNT20 KNHC 022352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU MAR 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N20W EQ30W 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW EXTENDS ALONG 29N83W 25N88W 19N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W-90W. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND IS PRODUCING BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DOMINATES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN GIVING SWLY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE ENTIRE BASIN. A 70-90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM HONDURAS NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE REACHING THE NE CORNER OF NICARAGUA NEAR CABO GRACIAS A ADIOS AND THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ATLANTIC... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC AREA WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. A BROAD TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 8N25W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER NE VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FARTHER NE OF THAT NEAR 17N35W OVER THE OPEN ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM 9N-23N E OF 55W INTO W AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W THEN EXTENDS WWD TO THE NRN BAHAMAS/S FLORIDA. MAINLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREA SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NORTH OF THE RIDGE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 41W-48W. $$ GR