000 AXNT20 KNHC 021749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU MAR 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N0 4N10W EQ35W 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 3W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IS CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW LOCATED INLAND OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THE LOW HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION...ROUGHLY ABOUT 500 NM TO ITS N AND W...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND BECOMING ENTRAINED TOWARDS THE CENTER. A TROUGH HAS BUILT TO THE SURFACE FROM 20N91W TO 27N87W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-91W. OTHERWISE...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND IS PRODUCING BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOIST COASTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS FROM S TEXAS TO CNTRL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...BUT DAYLIGHT IS QUICKLY BURNING THIS OFF. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE N GULF COAST TONIGHT AND EASE ACROSS THE E GULF/FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN... A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA WITH RIDGE AXES EXTENDING W ACROSS COSTA RICA AND E ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY WITH SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND A 70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM HONDURAS NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC. THE AREA IS VOID OF ANY MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. A FEW LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SW OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE ATLC AREA WITH A CONTINUED LACK OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. CONFLUENT FLOW IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN A BROAD TROUGH SE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND RIDGING OVER SOUTH AMERICA...PRODUCING A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W ATLC FROM 25N-28N. THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES E ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ALTHOUGH A BROAD TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 8N30W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST E OF FRENCH GUIANA OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 4N48W AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FARTHER NE OF THAT NEAR 17N36W OVER THE OPEN ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM 9N-23N E OF 55W INTO W AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W THEN EXTENDS WWD TO THE NRN BAHAMAS/S FLORIDA. THE ONLY CONVECTION OF NOTE IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE JUST N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 48W-53W. $$ BERG