000 AXNT20 KNHC 021205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W...TO JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W AND 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN-3N10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE 5N12W 2N20W 1S30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE GULF WATERS...EXTENDING INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND CURVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT NEAR THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS UP TO AND INCLUDING LATE 01 MARCH WERE SHOWING EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS EAST OF 70W. ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W HAVE BEEN REPORTING EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 01/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT OF WIND SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...HENCE THE CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 02/0900 UTC SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN EAST OF 70W...SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W...AND NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 33N19W TO A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N32W TO 25N56W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N72W TO 26N79W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT REACHES 31N35W. A COLD FRONT MUCH MORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO BERMUDA TO 33N69W...AND NORTHWESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY A TROUGH ALONG 56W/57W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. MOST OF THE BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. OTHER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT ARE NORTH OF 32N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOSTLY EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF 30N EAST OF 80W...EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 28W AND 55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TO 20W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN ALGERIA TO CENTRAL MOROCCO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ MT