000 AXNT20 KNHC 020623 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... 7N10W 2N20W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE 3N10W-1N20W-THE EQUATOR AT 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL WITHIN 180 NM OF LAND BETWEEN 36W AND 46W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W TO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 26N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE GULF WATERS...EXTENDING INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. A TROUGH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE NEAR 28N86W AND THE 27N92W HIGH CENTER...FROM 27N88W TO 28N90W TO 29N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT NEAR THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD TROUGH IN THE SURFACE ISOBARIC PATTERN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM A NORTHERN COLOMBIA/EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 9N73W...TO 15N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE PRECIPITATION IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER. QUIKSCAT WINDS UP TO AND INCLUDING 01/2200 UTC SHOW EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS EAST OF 70W. ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W HAVE BEEN REPORTING EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 01/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT OF WIND SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W... HENCE THE CURRENT FORECAST. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 02/0300 UTC SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE SEEN NOW NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN EAST OF 70W...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE CURVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W NORTH OF 15N70W 14N76W 10N78W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N23W TO A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N34W TO 26N41W 25N56W TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N77W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. A COLD FRONT RUNS FROM 33N65W TO 33N70W AND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS COLD FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM 25N67W TO 30N60W BEYOND 35N60W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 70W. ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF 32N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS TO 20W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN ALGERIA TO CENTRAL MOROCCO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ MT