000
AXNT20 KNHC 011717
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N20W 1N30W 1S40W 2S45W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
EQ-5N BETWEEN 10W-18W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
EQ-3N BETWEEN 18W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 
43W-47W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 20N88W 27N88W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W-88W.  10-15 
KT SLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF DUE TO RETURN 
FLOW FROM A W ATLANTIC RIDGE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT SLY SURFACE FLOW TO 
CONTINUED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF E 
OF 90W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
25-30 KT ELY WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  
LIGHTER 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 
62W-66W...OVER THE N VENEZUELA COAST FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 
67W-70W....OVER JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 76W-84W...AND OVER 
THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 
80W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N60W TO 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N97W.  FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM 
TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N40W TO 21N58W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT 
N OF 26N.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 30N32W.  A WEAK 1008 
MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO NEAR 28N10W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 
10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N AND E OF 30W. AN 
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 
29N11W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS FROM 5N-20N 
BETWEEN 50W-60W...AND FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 10W-50W.    

$$
FORMOSA