000 AXNT20 KNHC 281147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2.5N-4.5N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG/AND WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W. ALSO...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 2W-6W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZE CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE/STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. ESE WINDS NEAR 15-20 KTS...AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...COVER THE GULF EAST OF 90W...WHILE SE TO S WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THERE. THE EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE DAY GOES BY... WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND TO THE SE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE NW GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SW WINDS ARE BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTH PORTION OF MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD...MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE OVER N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS PANAMA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N47W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N54W TO NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE ARE WIDESPREAD COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC S OF 32N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 50W-70W N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25W-50W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 12N AND EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. $$ GR