000
AXNT20 KNHC 201140
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC. 

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 3N30W 5N40W 4N52W.   
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 1.5N W OF 45.5W NEAR S AMERICA.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 36W-43W... 
WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N53W AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
20W-31W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE 5.5N13W 5.5N17W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DISSIPATING WARM FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR KEY WEST TO 
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W AND SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER TODAY.  
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF 
THE FRONT.  SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE BRINGING PLENTY 
OF MOISTURE AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVER THE GULF WITH A FEW 
SPOTTY SHOWERS.  DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF SHOULD 
HEAD TOWARD LOUISIANA AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW.  THE 
FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO S TEXAS LATE SAT 
THEN BACK OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUN.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A DEEPENING 
TROUGH PASSING COLORADO/NEW MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
RETREATING FROM THE GULF AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENTERS FROM THE 
SOUTH.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
25 TO OCCASIONALLY 30 KT TRADES CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF 
THE AREA E OF 80W... LIGHTER IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH GALES STILL 
NW OF COLOMBIA.   PASSING TRADEWIND SHOWERS DOT THE REGION WITH 
MONTEGO BAY RECENTLY REPORTING A SHOWER AND A HEAVIER BATCH 
MOVING THRU PUERTO RICO.  MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N59W IS DRIFTING 
W AREA.. CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARDS.  OTHERWISE IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND W OF 
70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT THE FAR NW PART.  THE UPPER 
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF 
RAIN MOSTLY S OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
IN THE W ATLC.. WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER 
THE WEEKEND OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA E OF 80W WITH PLENTY 
OF SHOWERS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N65W THRU 
THE NW BAHAMAS THEN BACKING UP AS A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE WARM FRONT 
TO S FLORIDA.  BROKEN OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND 
NW OF THE FRONT. 1031 MB IS E OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N50W KEEPING 
TRADES UP IN THE AREA.  FARTHER E... LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 
22N BETWEEN 20W-35W DIPPING INTO THE AREA.  BECAUSE OF THIS 
UPPER ENERGY...A LOW IS FORMING ON A COLD FRONT NEAR 33N28W WITH 
THE FRONT CONTINUING S TO 29N28W 25N33W 24N42W.  COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N30W 27N34W 26N45W WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27.5N 
BETWEEN 24W-28W MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER-MAKER IS THE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N59W WITH AN AREA OF 
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 52W-61W.  IN 
ADDITION OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 4N-19N BETWEEN 
36W-60W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 40W-50W 
N OF THE ITCZ.  HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE BEING 
ADVECTED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS INTO W AFRICA.  TRADES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN 
MOST OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN THE E ATLC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT 
PENETRATING THE REGION AND SHOULD REMAIN LOW THRU THE WEEKEND

$$
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