000 AXNT20 KNHC 242349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI 24 OCT 2003 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NEWD OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N55W. BROAD/DISORGANIZED 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE S EDGE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 11N80W. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING A PERSISTENT AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ITS WEST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING COASTAL REGIONS OF SE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME WITH NO SIGNS OF IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT. A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST S OF HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA. THE REMNANTS OF NICHOLAS...1013 MB LOW NEAR 30N55W...HAVE MERGED WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS EXIST E OF THE REMNANT LOW FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 50W-56W. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 6N1W 7N30W 9N50W 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 27W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 34W36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 57W-59W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W TEXAS NEAR 30N101W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES N OF 30N. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 90W. TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ROUGH AXIS IS FROM 40N70W TO 32N73W TO A BASE NEAR 20N80W. CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 10N80W TO 20N66W TO BEYOND 32N50W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED W OF SPAIN NEAR 38N13W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA N OF THE EQUATOR TO 25N AND E OF 20W. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... W ATLC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N64W THROUGH THE N BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GLFMEX NEAR 24N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N90W JUST S OF LOUISIANA. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PRIMARILY JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE SE GLFMEX. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL TO E ATLC EXTENDING SWD FROM A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N34W. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 15W-25W. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED OVER INLAND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SEE ITCZ. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC. $$ FORMOSA