000 AXNT20 KNHC 072354 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE 07 OCT 2003 ...CORRECTED FOR DATE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KATE CENTER NEAR 49.5N 45.8W AT 07/2100 UTC MOVING NNE 42 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KATE IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN WRITTEN ON THE CYCLONE. TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 29W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. STRONG WLY SHEAR IS PREVENTING ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL THE TSTMS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 25W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOSTLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE WAVE PASSES WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 50W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 92W/93W IS NOW OUT OF THE AREA. AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N30W 8N40W 10N57W 10N64W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 27W-45W. MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES... GENERAL ZONAL FLOW CONTROLS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS HELPING FIRE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER N FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ZIP OFFSHORE AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY...CONTRIBUTING TO THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW E OF FLORIDA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF IT ALONG INLAND AREA OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION OVER THE SW GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH E OF THE SE USA. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA... CAUSING A SURFACE LOW ALONG A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE BAHAMAS NE TO S OF BERMUDA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE HEAVY RAINS IN THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SE USA FORECAST TO KEEP THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN PLACE. THE W-CENTRAL ATLC HAS A HIGH-OVER-LOW PATTERN IS PLACE... GENERALLY A RATHER STABLE CONFIGURATION. THE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W WITH AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 150 NM SSE OF PUERTO RICO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD BENEATH THE HIGH IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE LARGE AREA OF TSTMS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG ABOUT 70W-75W AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS... HELPING IT AMPLIFY A BIT. SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N53W. THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE BENEATH THE LOW.. RATHER TO EVENTUALLY MOVE MORE TO THE E AROUND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE E ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N W OF 35W WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TSTMS FROM A TROPICAL WAVE SPREADING EASTWARD TO ABOUT 40W. LARGE DEEP UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND AZORES... STUCK BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE W OF IRELAND.. A TRUE HIGH OVER LOW PATTERN. TROUGH IS STICKING INTO THE ATLC ALONG 25-28W N OF 14N WITH VERY DRY AIR N OF 23N E OF 35W. LITTLE NET MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME-FRAME. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC... CONCENTRATED AROUND THE WAVES AND THE ITCZ. SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES... TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N88W IN THE E-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED WEAK/MODERATE N OF 27N E OF 86W OVER WATER. DEVELOPING 1012 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W... ALONG A TROUGH STRETCHING NE TO 28N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 69W-74W. TROUGH IS ALONG 20N35W TO 29N42W IN THE E ATLC AND IS SERVING AS A MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF TROUGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DISTANT HIGH BEHIND THE TROUGH COVERING THE REST OF THE E ATLC. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO WATERS NEAR AND S OF 20N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 23N95W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR AND E OF BROWNSVILLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N W OF 82W. TSTMS ARE MORE ACTIVE THAN TYPICAL ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES EXCLUDING WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED WEAK/MODERATE IS MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY STILL E OF 60W. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS S OF 16N IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N32W. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 28N-31N FROM 76W-81W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 29N50W...75 NM OF 29N61W AND 23N63W. $$ BLAKE